Sep 29 2025

 

 Market & Economy

• White House talks: Spending disagreements; Democrats push for ACA tax credit extension.

• Rates: 10-yr Treasury yield dips to 4.16%.

• Jobs data: Key reports due this week, culminating Friday.

• Commodities: Oil ↓ ~2% to $64.50/barrel; Gold ↑ 1% to $3,850/oz.

• Crypto: Bitcoin near $112K, rebounding 1.5%.

Global & Sector Moves

• China tech: KWEB ETF +2.5%; Futu (FUTU) holding 50-day support.

• Semis: NVIDIA (NVDA) +1%, near breakout; Lam Research (LRCX) +4% on DB upgrade.

• Energy: Vistra (VST) +2% — expanding Texas plant, quadrupling capacity.

• Biotech: GenMab (GMAB) −3% buying Marus (MRUS) for $8B (cancer drug pipeline).

Stock Highlights

• Tesla (TSLA) +1.5%, strength ahead of Q3 deliveries (due Thursday).

• Astera Labs (ALAB) +5% rebound after last week’s sharp drop.

• Electronic Arts (EA) +5% (on top of Friday’s +15%); going private in $55B buyout by PIF/Silver Lake/Affinity.

• GlobalFoundries (GFS) +5% — partnership with Corning (GLW) on silicon photonics.

• Wells Fargo (WFC) flat; MS downgrade to equal weight but PT raised to $95.

• Novo Nordisk (NVO) −3% after MS downgrade to underweight.

Sept 17 2025

 

• Indexes & Fed:

  • NASDAQ extended a six-day win streak but looks stretched near moving averages.

  • 10-year yield flat at ~4.02% ahead of today’s Fed decision (expected 25 bps cut, with markets pricing in two more cuts this year).

• Commodities:

  • Crude oil at ~$64.25 (-0.5%), XLE back above moving averages.

  • Gold at ~$3,700/oz (-0.5%), still showing strong relative strength.

• Economic Data:

  • Mortgage refinance demand spiked 60% last week as rates dropped.

  • Housing starts missed expectations.

  • Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Survey due at 10 a.m. ET.

• Stock Movers:

  • Tesla: Slight dip (-1.5%) after settling lawsuits tied to 2019 autopilot crashes.

  • Netflix: Upgraded by Loop Capital (PT raised to $1,350 from $1,150).

  • Alibaba: +2% on securing China Unicom as AI chip customer.

  • Nvidia: -1.5% after China banned major firms (Alibaba, ByteDance, etc.) from buying its tailor-made chips.

  • Baidu: Up ~7% on AI/cloud optimism and a new deal with China Merchants Group.

  • Workday (WDAY): Higher after Elliott disclosed $2B stake.

  • Lyft: +12% on robo-taxi partnership with Waymo in Nashville.

• IPOs:

  • Stubhub (STUB): Priced at $23.50/share (midpoint of range).

  • WaterBridge Infrastructure (WBI): Priced at $20/share (top of range).

👉 Overall: Market strength continues ahead of the Fed decision, with standout moves in Lyft, Baidu, Workday, and Alibaba, while Nvidia and Tesla face pressure.

Sep 11 2025

 

Market Overview

• Futures: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow up ~0.3%; Russell 2000 up 0.25–0.3%.

• Treasury Yield: 10-year at 4.02%, near a 5-month low (briefly dipped below 4%).

Economic Data

• CPI (Aug):

  • Headline: +0.4% (a bit higher than expected).

  • YoY: 2.9% (in line).

  • Core: +0.3% MoM, 3.1% YoY (steady).

  • Airfares jumped +5.9% MoM; core goods prices rising (possibly tariff impact).

• Jobless Claims: Rose to 263K (highest since Oct 2021, mostly due to Texas data anomaly). Continuing claims dipped, suggesting hiring remains healthy.

• Fed Outlook: Still strong expectation of a 25 bp cut at next meeting; slim chance of 50 bp.

• ECB: Left rates unchanged, raised 2025 Eurozone inflation forecast to 2.1%.

Earnings & Corporate News

• Kroger (KR): Beat EPS, missed revenue; same-store sales ex-fuel +3.4%. Raised guidance slightly.

• Opendoor (OPEN): New CEO (ex-Shopify exec). Founders returning to board; $40M private placement → stock surged.

• KalVista Pharma (KALV): Wider loss, revenue miss, but optimism on new drug demand; EU approval expected Oct.

• Centene (CNC): Reaffirmed EPS guidance; stock surging, echoing insurer rebound seen with UnitedHealth.

• Micron (MU): Surging on Citi upgrade; strong fiscal 2026 guidance expected.

• Apple (AAPL): Downgraded to neutral by DA Davidson; product announcements seen as underwhelming. Stock down.

• Soundhound (SOUN): Initiated at Perform by Oppenheimer.

• UPS & FedEx: BofA downgraded UPS (underperform) and FedEx (neutral) → tariff changes on small imports may hurt volume and costs. FedEx reports earnings next week.

• Adobe (ADBE): Earnings after close; under pressure amid AI competition concerns.

• Gemini IPO (GEMI): Pricing tonight; Winklevoss twins involved. Money-losing but anticipated listing.

Sept 10 2025

 

Markets:

• NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 futures up 0.5%.

• 10-year Treasury yield dipped to ~4.05–4.06%.

Economic Data (PPI):

• Monthly PPI fell 0.1% (vs. +0.3% expected).

• Year-over-year PPI up 2.6% (below 3.3% estimate).

• Core PPI up 2.8% (vs. 3.5% expected).

• Suggests cooling inflation, though intermediate demand prices rising.

Fed Policy:

• Judge blocked Trump’s attempt to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook.

• She will participate in the Sept. 17 Fed meeting.

• Markets expect a 25 bp rate cut; some traders see a chance of 50 bp.

Earnings & Company News:

• Oracle (ORCL): Stock surged 27% pre-market. Reported RPO up 359% to $455B from four large contracts. RPO expected to exceed $0.5T, surpassing GDPs of South Africa and the Philippines.

• Rubrik (RBRK): Shares down ~4% after hours. Loss shrank to –$0.03/share (vs. –$0.40 last year). Revenue up 51% to $310M.

• Advanced Energy (AEIS): Adjusted EPS up 76%; revenue grew 21%. Q3 EPS guidance $1.20–$1.70 vs. $0.98 last year.

Sept 9 2025

 

Markets: Futures mostly flat (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq); IWM slightly down. 10-year Treasury yield near 5-month lows, crude oil up after OPEC’s production move.

Economic Data: NFIB Small Business Index rose to 100.8 (above expectations). Job benchmark revisions due later; could influence Fed rate cut expectations.

Events: Apple’s product event today (iPhone 17, ultra-thin “iPhone Air”).

Big Movers:

• Nebius (NBIS): +50% premarket on $17–19B AI cloud deal with Microsoft; boosts CoreWeave (+7%).

• Tesla: New “Mega Block” energy product; China registrations up 14% WoW but still down YoY.

• Novartis: Acquiring Tremeau Bio for $1.4B.

• SalePoint: Down on weak guidance despite beating Q2.

• CGNT: Beat and guided up.

• Intel: Management reshuffle, new data center chief from Arm.

• AC’s General Stores & Mission Produce: Beat earnings, modest stock reactions.

• Talen Energy: Buyback boosted to $2B through 2028.

• Dropbox: New $1.5B buyback.

• Dell: CFO stepping down after 28 years.

• Nasdaq: Investing $50M in Gemini, exploring tokenized securities.

• UnitedHealth: Strong Medicare Advantage ratings → bonus payments; insurers expected to hike premiums sharply.

• Uber Eats: Expanding to deliver Sephora beauty products.

• Teck Resources & Anglo American: Merging as “Anglo-Tech.”

• NextTracker: Buying Origami Solar for $53M.

• Korn Ferry: Beat, stock up.

• Core & Main (CNM): Weak guidance, stock down.

• News Corp: Murdoch family succession settled, some share sales.

• Unitree Robotics: Filing $7B IPO in China, robotics focus (dog & humanoid robots).

• Boeing: Upgraded to Buy on supply chain improvements.

• Nike & Lowe’s: Added to Jefferies’ franchise picks.

• Dick’s Sporting Goods: Upgraded to Buy by Citi.

Upcoming: Oracle, Synopsys, GameStop earnings after close; PPI (Wed) and CPI (Thu) key for Fed outlook.

Sep 8 2025

 Market/Index Trends

• Nasdaq Composite hit a new high, while Nasdaq 100 ETF stalled.

• S&P 500 ETF recovering Friday’s losses.

• Russell 2000 (IWM) showing an inside day after gains.

Key Stock & Sector Moves

• Robinhood (HOOD): Bounce off 50-day line, potential entry point.

• S&P 500 Changes: M-Core joining, replacing Caesars (CZR), Market Access (MKTX), Enphase (ENPH).

• MP Materials & Kratos: Downgraded from S&P 600 to 400 → usually negative.

• Ford (F): $1.65B shift into Solana-focused digital asset treasury; backed by Galaxy Digital, Jump Crypto, Multicoin.

• CoinShares: European crypto manager going public via SPAC.

• PNC Financial: Buying First Bank Holdings for $4.1B.

• UnitedHealth (UNH): Reaffirmed 2025 EPS guidance; 2026 premiums expected to rise most in 15 years.

• DNTH: Phase 2 trial data → stock volatile.

• SentinelOne (S): Acquiring Observo AI.

• Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH): Offering equity + $1.025B debt.

• Tobacco (MO, BTI, PM): FDA may fast-track nicotine pouch reviews; BTI upgraded to buy.

• Starlink (SpaceX): Buying EchoStar spectrum for $17B → less reliant on T-Mobile (TMUS fell sharply).

• Tesla (TSLA): China sales down 9.9% YoY in Aug, but up 41% MoM; US market share down to 38% (lowest in 8 yrs).

• Chinese LiDAR (Hsai): Plans Hong Kong listing.

• Uber & Lyft: Testing robo-taxis in Europe (Lyft w/ Baidu in 2026, Uber in Germany).

• SanDisk: Upgraded to $85 PT from $70.

Corporate & Event Highlights

• Goldman Sachs Communicopia + Tech Conference: speakers from Google Cloud, OpenAI, Meta, Anthropic.

• Apple event tomorrow: iPhone 17, thin “iPhone Air.”

• Earnings this week: SailPoint (Tues AM), Oracle, Rubrik, Synopsis (Tues PM), plus GameStop, AVAV.

Macro Updates

• Preliminary jobs revision (through Mar 2025) expected tomorrow → potential 800K job cut.

• Treasury Secretary Bessin flagged labor revisions.

Sep 5 2025

 

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📊 Market Overview

• S&P 500 futures: +0.4%

• NASDAQ 100 futures: +1%

• Russell 2000 (IWM): +0.7%

• Markets reacting positively despite weak jobs report.

---

🏦 Economic Data

• Non-farm payrolls (Aug): +22K (well below 77K est.)

• Unemployment rate: 4.3% (met expectations)

• Participation rate: 62.3%

• Wages: +0.3% MoM, +3.7% YoY (slightly below 3.8% est.)

• Signals inflation may be easing.

---

📈 Stock Movers

• Broadcom (AVGO): +15%

  • 36% EPS growth, 4th straight strong quarter.

  • Guided Q4 rev. $17.4B vs. $17.01B est.

  • Major clients: Google, Meta, ByteDance.

• Lululemon (LULU): –19%

  • EPS fell for first time in years.

  • Sales slowing, tariff & cost pressures, mgmt turmoil.

• Argan (AGX): –7%

  • EPS gain but Q2 rev. growth just +5% (weakest in 8 qtrs).

• Samsara (IOT): +13%

  • EPS $0.12 (record), revenue +30% to $392M.

  • Gross margin 77%.

---

Other Corporate/Market News

• Marian Technology joining S&P 600 (profitable since 2022).

• Goldman Sachs investing $1B in T. Rowe Price (TROW) to expand private equity, private credit, and infrastructure investing for retail clients.

Sept 04 25

Market Overview

• Futures: S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 slightly higher, Dow flat, Russell 2000 +0.3%.

• Bonds: 10-year Treasury yield at 4.19%, near multi-month lows.

• Commodities: Crude oil down >1% (after –2.5% yesterday on OPEC+ supply news), natural gas up.

Economic Data

• ADP Jobs: 54k vs 68k expected (down sharply from July’s 106k).

• Jobless claims: 237k (slightly above forecasts), continuing claims eased.

• Challenger layoffs: +39% MoM.

• Q2 Productivity: +3.3% (above 2.5% est.); unit labor costs +1% (below est.).

• Trade deficit (July): $73.8B.

• Upcoming: PMI Composite (9:45 ET), ISM Services (10:00 ET).

Policy & Trade

• Fed still expected to cut rates; key test will be jobs report Friday.

• Trump asked Supreme Court to reinstate tariffs ruled illegal by appeals court.

Earnings & Corporate News

• Winners:

  • Credo (+274% rev., strong guidance).

  • Ciena (rev. +29.5%, guidance up).

  • American Eagle (EPS beat; Sydney Sweeney ad cited as success).

  • HPE (beat EPS/rev., stock rising).

• Mixed/Weak:

  • Salesforce (rev. +10%, guided lower).

  • Figma (IPO report beat but stock falling).

  • GitLab (beat but weak guidance).

  • PagerDuty inline, weak momentum.

  • C3.ai (rev. –19%, widened loss, CEO change).

  • Sanofi (trial disappointment).

Tech & AI

• Palantir: partnerships with Lumen & Lear, little stock move.

• DeepSeek working on advanced AI model.

• NVIDIA investing in Honeywell quantum computing; Chinese firms still demand NVIDIA chips.

EVs & Autos

• BYD cut 2025 sales target (4.6M vs 5.5M).

• Tesla Robotaxi app waitlist opened; regulatory scrutiny ongoing.

 Other Notables

• Atlassian buying browser firm ($610M).

• Google fined $425M for privacy violations.

• T. Rowe Price stake purchase by Goldman Sachs ($1B).

• Brinker Intl. upgraded (Chili’s menu improvements).

• Broadcom, AGX, Samsara reporting after close.

 

Aug 29 2025

Market Overview

• NASDAQ 100 futures: down ~0.45%

• S&P 500 futures: down ~0.2%

• Economic data:

  • PCE Index up 0.3% (in line with expectations)

  • Core PCE (YoY) at 2.9%, slightly higher than June’s 2.8%

  • Income up 0.4%, spending up 0.5% (both met expectations)

  • Inflation shows no further cooling ahead of September Fed meeting

• Treasury yields: 10-year at 4.22% (+2 bps)

• Gold: flat at $2,476/oz, still strong year

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Company Highlights

• Alibaba (BABA):

  • Developing new AI chip to fill NVIDIA’s gap in China

  • Q1 revenue: $34.64B, slightly missed EPS ($2.06 vs $2.13)

  • Stock up 6–7% pre-market

• Affirm (AFRM):

  • Strong demand for 0% APR loans

  • Revenue up 30% to $837M, beat expectations

  • Profitability turnaround: +20¢/share vs -14¢ YoY

  • Stock up 14% after hours

• Autodesk (ADSK):

  • Q2 revenue: $1.8B, beat expectations

  • EPS also beat; strong upfront sales and contract growth

  • SEC/free cash flow case closed

  • Stock up 10% pre-market

• Ulta Beauty (ULTA):

  • Revenue: $2.79B, beat expectations

  • Same-store sales up 6.7% (double estimates)

  • Stock up 7% after hours

• Marvell (MRVL):

  • Revenue record $2.01B, in line with expectations

  • EPS beat by a penny

  • Stock down 12–16% after hours

• Dell (DELL):

  • EPS beat by 2¢, sales $3.73B (met expectations)

  • Q3 revenue forecast weaker than expected (impacted by tariffs)

  • Stock slipped after hours

• Netflix (NFLX):

  • Signed deal to broadcast 2026 World Baseball Classic in Japan

  • Part of push into live sports

 

Aug 1 2025

 

Market Overview

• Futures down:

  • S&P 500 and Dow: -1%

  • NASDAQ 100: -1.3%

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Jobs Report (July)

• Net new jobs: 73,000 vs expected 110,000

• Downward revision (May & June): -258,000

  • May: only 19,000 jobs added

  • June: only 14,000

• Unemployment rate: 4.2% (vs 4.1% in June)

• Participation rate: 62.2% (below 62.4% estimate)

• Average hourly earnings: +0.3% monthly, +3.9% YoY (beat expectations)

• Average work week: increased to 34.3 hours

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Tariffs

• Tariffs hitting ~60 countries

  • Switzerland: 39%

  • Taiwan: 20%

  • Canada: 35%

  • Mexico: 90-day reprieve after Trump–Scheinbaum call

  • China: Deadline approaching

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ISM Manufacturing Survey (upcoming at 7 a.m. PT)

• Expected: 49.5, indicating contraction (below neutral 50)

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Earnings Highlights

• AMSC (American Semiconductor):

  • +29% yesterday, now -6% pre-market

  • Record revenue: $72.4M, EPS: $0.29

  • Strong gross margins

• ATI (Allegheny Technologies):

  • -19% for the week

  • Weak Q3 guidance despite Boeing deal

• Amazon (AMZN):

  • Initially -1%, then -7% pre-market

  • Revenue beat by $5B

  • EPS beat by $0.35

  • Missed AWS “whisper” expectations despite margin of 11.4%

  • Operating income outlook missed ($18B vs $19.5B expected)

• Apple (AAPL):

  • EPS beat by $0.14, stock +2%

  • Revenue: $94B (vs est. $89.3B)

  • iPhone sales: $44.6B (vs est. $40.1B)

• Reddit (RDDT):

  • After-hours high: $193.89 (+21%)

  • EPS: $0.45 (beat all 20 analysts)

  • Net income: $89M (vs est. $36M)

  • Strong international growth (+32% in daily users)

• KLAC:

  • EPS: $9.38 (Q3 est. $8.30)

  • -2% pre-market

• Cloudflare (NET):

  • +5% after hours

  • EPS beat by $0.03, revenue beat by $11M

• Roku:

  • -4% after hours despite $0.07 surprise profit

  • Approved $500M stock buyback

• Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR):

  • +5% after hours on strong Q2 results

• ExxonMobil (XOM):

  • +1% pre-market

  • EPS: $1.64 (adjusted $1.77 beat)

  • Revenue: $81.51B (beat by ~$1B)

  • Highest Q2 production since Exxon–Mobil merger

  • Permian Basin output: 1.6M barrels/day

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Bond Market

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.25%

  • Down 10 basis points, signaling strong demand for bonds

July 18

 

Markets Overview (Pre-Market)

• NASDAQ 100 & S&P 500 Futures: Slight gains of 0.1%, continuing a recent uptrend.

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.42%.

• Gold: Up 0.6% to $3,300.64/oz.

• Crude Oil: Up 1.1% to $66.94/barrel, but still flat for the year based on USO ETF.

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Upcoming Data

• University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (July preliminary): Expected at 61.4, up from 60.7 in June.

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Crypto Regulation News

• Crypto Week: Congress passed the Genius and Clarity Acts for crypto regulation.

• Anti-CBDC Act: Passed to prevent a Federal Reserve–issued digital currency.

• Bills pending President Trump's signature.

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Earnings Highlights

Netflix (NFLX)

• Stock down 2% after-hours.

• EPS beat by $0.12.

• Sales growth: 16%.

• Margins may tighten in H2.

• Raised full-year guidance: $44.8B–$45.2B.

• Strong content lineup and ad-tier subscriber growth.

Interactive Brokers (IBKR)

• 8 straight quarters of double-digit revenue & earnings growth.

• Breakout chart pattern noted.

• Chairman optimistic on crypto, prediction markets, and retail investor activity.

American Express (AXP)

• EPS: $4.08 (vs est. $3.89), up 17%.

• Revenue: $17.86B, slight beat.

• Pre-market: up ~1–2%.

3M

• EPS: $2.16 (vs est. $2.01).

• Revenue: $6.16B, beat by $50M.

• Stock up 2% pre-market.

Union Pacific (UNP)

• Exploring merger with Norfolk Southern (NSC).

• May boost Dow Jones Transport Index.

Chevron (CVX) & Hess (HES)

• CVX up 3%, HES up 7% after court win against ExxonMobil over Guyana assets.

• Boosts chances Chevron will acquire HESS.

SLB (Schlumberger)

• Revenue down 6% to $8.55B.

• EPS: $0.74, down 13% YoY.

Jul 17

 Economic Data:

• Retail Sales rose 0.6% in June, well above expectations of 0.1%, rebounding from a 0.9% decline in May. Excluding autos and gas, sales were also up 0.6%.

• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index surged to 15.9 (expected ~0), following New York Empire’s positive surprise earlier this week.

• Jobless Claims came in at 221,000 (vs. 233,000 expected), suggesting a still-strong labor market. Continuing claims remain elevated at 1.956 million.

• Housing Market Index expected at 33 (vs. 32 prior), still below neutral (50).

Earnings Highlights:

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC): EPS +61%, revenue +39%, raised Q3/full-year guidance. Capital spending outlook unchanged. Chipmakers like NVIDIA and AMD up slightly; chip equipment makers down.

• GE Aerospace: EPS beat (+24%), raised 2025 and 2028 guidance.

• United Airlines: Beat on EPS, slight revenue miss; lowered full-year forecast due to Newark disruptions.

• Alcoa: In-line EPS, slight revenue beat; impacted by Canadian aluminum tariffs.

• Uber: Investing $300M in Lucid and additional funds in Nuro (delivery robotics).

• Abbott Labs: EPS/revenue beat but issued weak guidance; stock down sharply.

• Vertiv (VRT): Buying Great Lakes (data rack maker) for $200M.

• Travelers, Marsh McLennan, U.S. Bancorp, Pepsi, Target: Mixed results, mostly positive earnings, some slight revenue misses.

• Coca-Cola: Rumors of switching to cane sugar in the U.S. sparked confusion; ADM (corn syrup supplier) down.

• Novartis: EPS beat, revenue +12%, raised core income forecast.

• Sarepta: Cutting jobs amid struggles.

• Union Pacific: Exploring possible coast-to-coast merger with CSX or Norfolk Southern.

Market Sentiment:

• Stocks showed resilience after earlier weakness this week.

• Major indexes closed strong (85–93% of daily range), suggesting upside reversal.

• Russell 2000 bounced off its 21-day moving average.

• NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed up ~0.3%.

• Market overall is still positive, holding above key moving averages, though not as extended as early July.

Upcoming:

• Earnings: Netflix (after close), American Express, 3M, SLB (tomorrow).

• Watch for continued chip and industrial trends, as well as airline and health insurer reactions.

Jul 3 2025

 General Market:

• Futures broadly positive:

• • IWM (Russell 2000) leading, up ~0.5%.

  • NASDAQ (Q’s) +0.4%, S&P 500 (SPY) +0.3%, Dow Jones +0.2%.

Economic Data:

• June Jobs Report: Better than expected.

  • Non-farm payrolls: +147K vs. +110K estimate.

  • Unemployment fell to 4.1%.

  • April & May jobs revised higher.

• Jobless claims: Fell to 233K vs. expected 240K.

• Factory Orders: Due at 10 AM ET, unlikely to be market-moving.

Treasury Yields:

• 10-Year Yield: Rose to ~4.33% after jobs report.

Commodities:

• Bitcoin: ~$109,350, slightly down.

• Oil: ~$67.25, down slightly.

• Gold: Lower, clinging to its 50-day moving average.

Key Stocks & Movers:

• Shopify (SHOP): On watch for technical breakout.

• TechnipFMC (FTI): Strong oil equipment play, consolidating near $35.

• Oracle (ORCL): Up 1.5% on $30B data center deal with OpenAI.

• Datadog (DDOG): +9%, joining the S&P 500, replacing Juniper Networks.

• Apple (AAPL): iPhone sales in China +8% on discounts/trade-in boosts.

• Tripadvisor (TRIP): +8%, activist stake from Starboard Value.

• Cadence Design (CDNS) & Synopsys (SNPS): Up on lifted chip software export restrictions.

• Kratos Defense (KTOS): +2%, post-share offering rebound, RBC upgrades target.

• Alibaba (BABA): Down ~2%, on $1.5B debt offering.

Political/Trade News:

• Trump’s tax & immigration bill advancing in the House.

• Vietnam import tariff adjusted to 20% from prior 46%

Jun 27 2025

 

🧾 Macro Data Highlights (PCE Inflation Report – May):

• Personal Income: ↓ 0.4% (vs. +0.3% expected)

• Personal Spending: ↓ 0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected)

• Headline PCE Inflation:

  • +0.1% MoM, +2.1% YoY (better than expected 2.3%) ✅

• Core PCE Inflation:

  • +0.2% MoM (vs. +0.1% expected)

  • +2.7% YoY (vs. 2.6% expected) ❗

🔎 Mixed report: Headline PCE was cooler, but core inflation came in slightly hot.

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💵 Market & Asset Reaction:

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: Holding at ~4.27% (well off recent highs of 4.6%+)

• Rate Cut Outlook: Markets still pricing two Fed rate cuts by year-end.

• Gold & Silver:

  • GLD (Gold ETF): ↓ 2.3%

  • SLV (Silver ETF): ↓ 2.3%

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📈 Company Earnings & Stock Moves

1. Nike (NKE):

   • 📈 +11% post-earnings

   • EPS: $0.14/share (down significantly)

   • Revenue: ↓ 12% (but slightly beat estimates)

   • Margins: ↓ 4.4 percentage points

   • ⚠ Facing $1B in tariff-related costs, 16% of footwear made in China

   • 💬 New CEO: “We are in a fight in every sport we’re in.”

   • ✅ Strong early sales for “Bone Marrow 18” running shoe ($100M+)

2. Apogee Enterprises (APOG):

   • Reported $0.56 EPS, $346M revenue

   • 📉 Stock weak despite earlier pre-market strength

   • Relative Strength Rating: 8 (very low)

3. Concentrix (CNXC):

   • 📉 Down ~7% after hours

   • Sales up slightly, but flat earnings

   • Weak growth outlook

4. Core Scientific (CORZ):

   • 🚀 Up sharply on acquisition rumors by CoreWeave (CRWV)

   • WSJ reports merger talks are underway

5. Pony.ai:

   • 🧠 Robo-taxi company with U.S. unit

   • Reports suggest Travis Kalanick-led group may fund acquisition of its U.S. assets

   • Uber possibly involved in funding — Uber stock ↓ 1.3%

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🔄 Market Sentiment

• NASDAQ 100 (QQQ): Heading into a 5th straight up day

• Tone: Mixed fundamentals but strong technical setup

• Analysts see strength in the index-level “cup with handle” breakout pattern, suggesting potential for continued rally despite bearish sentiment in headlines.

Jun 25 25

 📈 Morning Market Recap Summary (8:27 – 8:33 a.m.)

🪙 Commodities & ETFs

• Gold: Flat around $2,333/oz; GLD gapped down Tuesday, testing its 50-day moving average.

• IBIT (Bitcoin ETF): Up 2% pre-market after testing 50-day on Monday, following Bitcoin higher.

🏠 Economic Data

• May new home sales data due at 10 a.m. ET.

💼 Earnings Movers

• AeroVironment (AVAV): Earnings +247% YoY, revenue +40%. Despite soft full-year guidance, stock gapping up—possibly due to drone contracts (Israel, Ukraine).

• Worthington Enterprises (WOR): Up nearly 20% pre-market after earnings/revenue beat.

• Paychex (PAYX): Down ~3% after slightly missing revenue; near 200-day MA.

• FedEx (FDX): Down 5% despite EPS/revenue beat; weak guidance overshadows $4B in cost cuts.

• Rubrik (RBRK): Up 1% after announcing plans to acquire AI model deployment firm (possible $500M deal).

• Yum! Brands (YUM): Up 1.5% on JPMorgan upgrade (cites strong free cash flow).

• Coinbase (COIN): Up 5% after Bernstein raises PT from $310 → $510.

• Robinhood & Futu (HOOD, FUTU): Both trading up sharply; FUTU up 6%, possibly breaking out with no obvious news.

💻 Upcoming

• Micron (MU) reports earnings after the close. Stock and SMH (semis ETF) broke out Tuesday.

📊 Market Sentiment

• NASDAQ crosses 20,000.

• Rally leaders: Netflix, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Palantir, Spotify.

• Trader focus shifting to newer ideas like OLLI (Ollie’s), PLNT (Planet Fitness).

• Notable short: Lilly (LLY).

Jun 24 2025

🌐 Macro Headlines:

• Middle East Ceasefire: Declared by Trump (Iran–Israel); still some missile activity post-announcement.

• Market Reaction: Optimistic.

  • S&P Futures: +0.8%

  • Dow Futures: +0.8% (above 200-DMA)

  • 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.36% (+4 bps)

  • Crude Oil: Down sharply (–8% yesterday, –5% pre-market)

  • Gold & Silver: Down 2%

  • Natural Gas: $3.61/MMBtu, –2%

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🚢 Cruise Stocks Rallying:

• Carnival (CCL): +5% pre-market (expected EPS: $0.24, up from $0.11 YoY; revs $6.21B)

• Royal Caribbean (RCL): +2%

• Norwegian (NCLH): +3%

• Viking: +1.2%
  Drop in oil = tailwind for cruise lines.

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✈️ Airlines Up:

• United (UAL): +3.6%

• American (AAL): +3%

• Alaska Air (ALK): +2%

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💡 Stock-Specific News:

• Chewy (CHWY): –1.5% on $1B share offering.

• EQT: Highlighted in Barron’s Energy Insider.

• Snowflake (SNOW): +2% after Morgan Stanley upgrade (Overweight).

• AMD: Price target raised to $175 (from $110) by Melius; MI350 chips could add $20B in GPU sales by 2028.

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📊 Technical Outlook:

• S&P 500 forming a cup-with-handle pattern.

• Watch 5367.8 as key resistance level.

• SPY: +0.7%, lower RS than QQQ.

• IWM (Russell 2000): Still lagging, but also rising.

 

Market Overview:

• Futures: Mixed and mostly unchanged; small caps slightly down (~0.3%).

• Oil: Initially up over the weekend, now down 0.5% at ~$73.50/barrel.

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: Down 3 basis points to ~4.35%.

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Geopolitical Tension:

• U.S. bombed 3 Iranian nuclear sites using bunker-busters and Tomahawks.

• Iran's Parliament approved closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil route, but it still needs higher approval.

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Notable Stock Movers:

• Chevron: Leading gains in the Dow.

• NVIDIA: Lagging slightly.

• Apple: Slight uptick amid internal talks of bidding for Perplexity AI; Meta also reportedly interested.

• Tesla: +1.5% pre-market after Robotaxi launch in Austin for $4.20/ride.

• Hims & Hers: -20% after Novo Nordisk terminated partnership, accusing it of selling knockoffs of Wegovy.

• Novo Nordisk (NVO): -5% after disappointing trial results for new obesity drug.

• Exelixis (EXEL): +20% on positive Phase 3 colorectal cancer drug results.

• Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX): +100% on successful Phase 2 flu treatment data.

• Northern Trust (NTRS): +6% after BNY Mellon approached about merger (reportedly declined).

• Fiserv (FI): +6% on news of launching a stablecoin and digital asset platform, partnered with Circle and PayPal.

• DoorDash (DASH): +2.5% after Raymond James price target raised from $215 to $260.

• AMD: +2% after Melius Research raised price target to $175 from $110.

• Supermicro (SMCI): -3% after announcing a $2B debt offering.

• Estee Lauder (EL): +2% following Deutsche Bank upgrade to Buy.

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Earnings to Watch:

• Tuesday (Pre-Market): Carnival (CCL)

• Tuesday (After Close): AeroVironment (AVAV) – key drone supplier to Ukraine & Israel

• Wednesday (After Close): Micron (MU) – stock has rallied in anticipation