Jul 17

 Economic Data:

• Retail Sales rose 0.6% in June, well above expectations of 0.1%, rebounding from a 0.9% decline in May. Excluding autos and gas, sales were also up 0.6%.

• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index surged to 15.9 (expected ~0), following New York Empire’s positive surprise earlier this week.

• Jobless Claims came in at 221,000 (vs. 233,000 expected), suggesting a still-strong labor market. Continuing claims remain elevated at 1.956 million.

• Housing Market Index expected at 33 (vs. 32 prior), still below neutral (50).

Earnings Highlights:

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC): EPS +61%, revenue +39%, raised Q3/full-year guidance. Capital spending outlook unchanged. Chipmakers like NVIDIA and AMD up slightly; chip equipment makers down.

• GE Aerospace: EPS beat (+24%), raised 2025 and 2028 guidance.

• United Airlines: Beat on EPS, slight revenue miss; lowered full-year forecast due to Newark disruptions.

• Alcoa: In-line EPS, slight revenue beat; impacted by Canadian aluminum tariffs.

• Uber: Investing $300M in Lucid and additional funds in Nuro (delivery robotics).

• Abbott Labs: EPS/revenue beat but issued weak guidance; stock down sharply.

• Vertiv (VRT): Buying Great Lakes (data rack maker) for $200M.

• Travelers, Marsh McLennan, U.S. Bancorp, Pepsi, Target: Mixed results, mostly positive earnings, some slight revenue misses.

• Coca-Cola: Rumors of switching to cane sugar in the U.S. sparked confusion; ADM (corn syrup supplier) down.

• Novartis: EPS beat, revenue +12%, raised core income forecast.

• Sarepta: Cutting jobs amid struggles.

• Union Pacific: Exploring possible coast-to-coast merger with CSX or Norfolk Southern.

Market Sentiment:

• Stocks showed resilience after earlier weakness this week.

• Major indexes closed strong (85–93% of daily range), suggesting upside reversal.

• Russell 2000 bounced off its 21-day moving average.

• NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed up ~0.3%.

• Market overall is still positive, holding above key moving averages, though not as extended as early July.

Upcoming:

• Earnings: Netflix (after close), American Express, 3M, SLB (tomorrow).

• Watch for continued chip and industrial trends, as well as airline and health insurer reactions.