Jan-26-2025

Market & Macro Snapshot

• Cold weather impacting parts of the U.S., including the Philadelphia area.

• Crude oil slightly lower around $60.80/barrel; energy ETFs (XLE, USO) have rallied in recent weeks.

• Government shutdown risk resurfaces ahead of Jan 30, as Democrats push to pull DHS funding following a Minnesota incident involving ICE agents. President Trump is sending Tom Homan to Minneapolis.

Precious Metals Surge

• Gold up ~1.8% pre-market, trading near $5,065–$5,100/oz.

• Silver (SLV) up sharply, ~8% pre-market, near $110/oz.

• Gold miners ripping higher pre-market (IBD 50 leaders include CDE, ORLA, IAG).

• Allied Gold (AAUC) up ~3% after news of a $4B acquisition by Chinese miner Zijin.

Equities & Sectors

• Airlines (DAL, UAL, AAL) modestly lower amid widespread flight delays; stocks testing 50-day moving averages.

• Dow leaders early: Apple (AAPL) and Cisco (CSCO).

• Magnificent Seven earnings this week: Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, Meta.

Notable Stock Movers

• USA Rare Earth (USAR): +20% pre-market after U.S. government takes a 10% stake (~$1.65B).

• CoreWeave: Shares higher as NVIDIA invests another $2B to expand AI data centers.

• IONQ: +2% on news it’s acquiring SkyWater Technology (SKYT) for nearly $2B; SKYT up ~8%.

• AppLovin: +5% after Needham upgrade to Buy, $700 price target.

• Dutch Bros (BROS): Slightly higher after Citi initiates Buy, $82 target.

Earnings to Watch

• Data storage: SanDisk, Western Digital, Seagate.

• Chip equipment: Lam Research, KLA.

• Fiber optics: Amphenol, Corning, VIAVI.

Jan-23-2026

 Market Overview

• SPY: down ~0.2%

• QQQ: down ~0.3%, later stabilizing

• Dow Jones: potentially first decline after 3 sessions

• Market weakness is mild overall.

Key News & Stock Movers

• Tesla (TSLA):

  • Stock up ~4% after comments by Elon Musk at the World Economic Forum.

  • Reduced human safety monitors in Austin robo-taxis.

  • Optimus humanoid robots possibly for sale by end of 2027; estimated cost $20K–$30K.

  • Morgan Stanley estimates <1M humanoid robots sold in the U.S. by decade’s end.

• Oracle (ORCL):

  • Down ~2%.

  • Part of a deal to acquire a majority stake in TikTok alongside Silverlake and Abu Dhabi–based MGX (each owning 15%).

  • ByteDance retains 20%.

• Alcoa (AA):

  • Down ~4% pre-market.

  • Q4 revenue beat, but mixed outlook on production.

• Capital One (COF):

  • Down ~3% after earnings miss.

  • Announced acquisition of Brex for $5.15B.

• Intel (INTC):

  • Down ~13% pre-market.

  • Reported net loss of $333M, revenue down 4%.

  • Supply constraints expected to be worst in Q1; multi-year recovery ahead.

• SLB (Schlumberger):

  • Up ~1.3% after earnings.

• Life360 (LIF):

  • Up ~23% on strong user growth (95.8M monthly active users).

• Sallie Mae (SLM):

  • Up 7–10% pre-market.

  • EPS beat ($1.12 vs $0.94) and announced $500M stock buyback.

Market Open Check

• QQQ and SPY show only light declines.

• Equal-weighted indexes slightly weaker.

• All major indexes remain above key moving averages.

Jan 9 26

 Markets:

Futures are modestly higher pre-market:

• QQQ +0.2%

• SPY +0.2%

• IWM +0.4%

Rates & economy:

• 10-year Treasury at 4.18%, capped in a 4–4.2% range for months

• Unemployment fell to 4.4%

• Job creation came in below expectations (~50k)

• Wage growth steady at 0.3% MoM, 3.8% YoY

• Average workweek fell, signaling employer caution

Rate cut outlook:
Weaker job growth increases expectations for rate cuts in 2025.

Stocks in focus:

• Oklo & Vistra surged on power deals with Meta

• Intel rose on favorable Trump comments

• Rocket (RKT) jumped ~5% on Trump’s proposal to boost mortgage purchases

Housing & policy:
Proposal to use Fannie/Freddie cash to lower mortgage rates; potential ~65 bps reduction in 30-year rates.

Earnings ahead:
JPM, Delta, Citi, Taiwan Semi, Morgan Stanley reporting next week.

Regulation:
SEC may raise “small entity” AUM threshold from $25M to $1B, easing compliance for RIAs.

Jan 9 2026

 Market Tone:

Volatile, headline-driven. Defense stocks rebounded after Trump proposed a $1.5T FY27 defense budget (vs. ~$1T prior), despite earlier pressure over buybacks/dividends. Expect whipsaw action to continue.

Key Gainers / Watchlist:

• Defense: LMT, NOC, GD – rebound on budget optimism; trade headlines, not fundamentals today.

• Bloom Energy (BE): Big gap up on $2.6–$5B AEP fuel-cell deal + Wyoming facility.

• Globus Medical (GMED): Gapping higher after raised Q4 sales and 2026 outlook.

• Applied Digital (APLD): Revenue +98%, hyperscaler talks → AI/data-center momentum.

• Memory Semis: Samsung earnings nearly tripled → sympathy moves in memory names.

M&A / Corporate Action:

• Eli Lilly (LLY): Confirmed Ventex buyout ($14/share); VTYX largely priced in.

• CrowdStrike (CRWD): Buying AI identity startup CGNL (~$740M).

• AbbVie (ABBV): Denies talks with RVMD → RVMD likely to fade.

Weak / Risk Areas:

• Biotech: IMRX collapsing on failed Phase 2B data.

• Solar: CSIQ down on $200M convertible offering.

• Financials: JEF pressured by GAAP miss tied to First Brands charge.

Consumer & Macro Reads:

• Costco (COST): Strong December comps, but trend still weak → watch for bounce vs. fade.

• China / NVDA: Reports China may approve H200 purchases this quarter → headline sensitivity remains.

Today’s Focus:
Trade gaps and reversals, watch defense for policy volatility, and AI/data-center names for momentum continuation

Dec 18 2025

Concise Market & Stock Highlights Summary

• Stocks in Focus (IBD/Leaders):

  • Broadcom (AVGO): Mentioned as a stock considered for shorting but proved resilient.

  • Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (RYTM): Strong small-cap biotech, ranked #12 in the IBD50.

• Market Overview:

  • Futures higher after softer-than-expected inflation data and strong Micron earnings.

  • Nasdaq (QQQ): Up ~1.5–1.7% pre/open, but still below the 50-day moving average after a harsh distribution day. Distribution day count on Nasdaq now ~7.

  • S&P 500: Up ~0.9–1%.

  • Russell 2000 (IWM): Up ~1.2–1.6%, small caps outperforming.

  • Dow: Lagging but up ~0.5–0.8%.

  • 10Y Treasury: ~4.13%, slightly lower.

  • Oil: ~$56.25/bbl.

  • Bitcoin: Up ~2%.

• Economic Data:

  • CPI (YoY): 2.7% vs 3.1% expected (cooler inflation).

  • Core CPI: 2.6% vs 3.0% expected.

  • Jobless Claims: 224k, roughly in line.

• Earnings & Stock Movers:

  • Micron (MU): +15% pre-market on blockbuster earnings and huge upside guidance (EPS ~$8.42 vs $4.78 est; revenue ~$18.7B vs $14.2B est). Lifted peers WDC, Seagate, SanDisk.

  • Darden Restaurants (DRI): Better revenue and same-store sales; raised FY26 sales outlook. Restaurant stocks may catch a bid.

  • Accenture (ACN): Down ~3% despite beats; facing resistance at 200-day MA.

  • Birkenstock (BIRK): Down ~10% on weak earnings/guidance; tariff pressure.

  • CarMax (KMX): Down ~11% on soft demand; revenue -7%, earnings -47% YoY.

  • Instacart (CART): Down on FTC probe into AI pricing practices.

  • Lululemon (LULU): Up pre-market after reports Elliott Management took a >$1B stake; CEO stepping down in January.

  • Trump Media (DJT): +25% on merger news with fusion-energy firm TAE Technologies (~$6B deal).

• Upcoming Earnings (After Close):

  • FedEx (FDX), KB Home (KBH), Nike (NKE).

• Strategy Note:

  • Given recent distribution days and Nasdaq weakness, portfolio risk was reduced; leaders list now ~50% invested, reflecting a more cautious stance despite the strong open.

 

Dec 05 2025

 Markets opened slightly higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.1% after quiet pre-market action. Several companies reported strong quarterly results:

Earnings Highlights

• UiPath reported a strong October quarter:
  • Earnings up 45%
  • Revenue up 16%, the fastest growth in 7 quarters
  • Shows strong momentum in digital productivity tools.

• Rubrik surged 20% pre-market after earnings:
  • More than halved its net loss in Q3
  • Posted $0.10 adjusted EPS
  • Revenue up 48%
  • Raised full-year revenue guidance by $50M to $1.28B.

• Ulta Beauty rose 6% after hours:
  • Same-store sales up 6.3%
  • Revenue beat by $150M
  • Full-year guidance raised to $12.3B
  • Expected EPS around $25.35.
  Industry trends show strong “mastige” demand — affordable luxury for lower-income consumers.

• DocuSign fell 9%:
  • Beat EPS by 9 cents
  • Revenue came in at $818M
  • Guidance for fiscal 2026 disappointed investors.

• HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise) slipped toward $20:
  • EPS beat by 4 cents
  • But revenue missed due to delays in customer AI projects and supply chain issues.

Macro & Commodities

• The EU voted to ban Russian gas imports by late 2027.

• Natural gas futures have surged, breaking above $3.50 in late October and reaching $5.09, up 40% YTD.

Market Context

• Strong multi-year performance:
  • 2024: S&P 500 up 24%
  • 2025: S&P 500 up 23.3%
  • 2026 (year-to-date): on track for another double-digit gain assuming no major shocks.

Mkt update 11/20/25

 

Market & Economic Summary

Economic Data

• Fed’s view: Recent job weakness may be influenced by immigration shifts, not necessarily economic slowdown.

• Next jobs report: November report comes after the next Fed meeting.

• Rate cut odds: Increased slightly after the latest jobs data but still below 50%.

• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index:

  • Improved from -12.8 → -1.7 (estimate was 0).

  • Price pressures eased.

  • Future outlook strongest in years.

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💻 Earnings & Stocks

NVIDIA

• EPS +60%, Revenue +62% — growth accelerating.

• Strong Q4 guidance; Blackwell chip demand “off the charts.”

• Slight supply constraints remain.

• Historically pops after earnings but can fade later.

Walmart

• EPS +7%, Revenue +6%.

• 27% e-commerce growth.

• Raised full-year guidance.

• Attracting shoppers across all income levels.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

• EPS +19%, Revenue +16%, slight beats.

• Buying Chronosphere, moving into observability (competing more with Datadog).

• Stock moved down initially; other cyber names mixed (CrowdStrike up).

IBM & Cisco

• Partnering in quantum computing + quantum networking.

• Large players entering space dominated by smaller specialists.

Exact Sciences (EXAS)

• Being acquired by Abbott (ABT) for $105/share (~$21B).

• Stock surged on takeover rumors and again on confirmation.

Other Movers

• Construction Partners: Revenue +67% but missed EPS → stock down.

• ZIM Integrated Shipping: Big beat but revenue still down 36% YoY.

• VIPS (China e-commerce): Beat EPS, revenue +3%, but stock down pre-market.

• After-hours to watch: Ross Stores (ROST) and Intuit (INTU).