Friday, August 01, 2025

Aug 1 2025

 

Market Overview

  • Futures down:

    • S&P 500 and Dow: -1%

    • NASDAQ 100: -1.3%


Jobs Report (July)

  • Net new jobs: 73,000 vs expected 110,000

  • Downward revision (May & June): -258,000

    • May: only 19,000 jobs added

    • June: only 14,000

  • Unemployment rate: 4.2% (vs 4.1% in June)

  • Participation rate: 62.2% (below 62.4% estimate)

  • Average hourly earnings: +0.3% monthly, +3.9% YoY (beat expectations)

  • Average work week: increased to 34.3 hours


Tariffs

  • Tariffs hitting ~60 countries

    • Switzerland: 39%

    • Taiwan: 20%

    • Canada: 35%

    • Mexico: 90-day reprieve after Trump–Scheinbaum call

    • China: Deadline approaching


ISM Manufacturing Survey (upcoming at 7 a.m. PT)

  • Expected: 49.5, indicating contraction (below neutral 50)


Earnings Highlights

  • AMSC (American Semiconductor):

    • +29% yesterday, now -6% pre-market

    • Record revenue: $72.4M, EPS: $0.29

    • Strong gross margins

  • ATI (Allegheny Technologies):

    • -19% for the week

    • Weak Q3 guidance despite Boeing deal

  • Amazon (AMZN):

    • Initially -1%, then -7% pre-market

    • Revenue beat by $5B

    • EPS beat by $0.35

    • Missed AWS “whisper” expectations despite margin of 11.4%

    • Operating income outlook missed ($18B vs $19.5B expected)

  • Apple (AAPL):

    • EPS beat by $0.14, stock +2%

    • Revenue: $94B (vs est. $89.3B)

    • iPhone sales: $44.6B (vs est. $40.1B)

  • Reddit (RDDT):

    • After-hours high: $193.89 (+21%)

    • EPS: $0.45 (beat all 20 analysts)

    • Net income: $89M (vs est. $36M)

    • Strong international growth (+32% in daily users)

  • KLAC:

    • EPS: $9.38 (Q3 est. $8.30)

    • -2% pre-market

  • Cloudflare (NET):

    • +5% after hours

    • EPS beat by $0.03, revenue beat by $11M

  • Roku:

    • -4% after hours despite $0.07 surprise profit

    • Approved $500M stock buyback

  • Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR):

    • +5% after hours on strong Q2 results

  • ExxonMobil (XOM):

    • +1% pre-market

    • EPS: $1.64 (adjusted $1.77 beat)

    • Revenue: $81.51B (beat by ~$1B)

    • Highest Q2 production since Exxon–Mobil merger

    • Permian Basin output: 1.6M barrels/day


Bond Market

  • 10-year Treasury yield: 4.25%

    • Down 10 basis points, signaling strong demand for bonds

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