Thursday, May 15, 2025

May 15 2025

 

Market & Economic Updates:

  • U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal: Progress toward a deal could increase Iranian oil output.

  • 10-Year Treasury Yield: Slightly down to 4.49%, still at highs not seen since Feb 19.

  • Fed Commentary: Jerome Powell warned of persistent supply shocks that could challenge monetary policy.

  • Inflation Data:

    • PPI (April): Fell 0.5% vs expected 0.2%. Prior revised up to flat.

    • Core PPI: Fell 0.4%, missing 0.3% expectations. Prior revised up to 0.4%.

    • Core Inflation: At 3.1% YoY vs 3.0% estimate.

  • Retail Sales (April): +0.1%, in line. March revised up to +1.7%.

  • Philly Fed Index (May): -10 vs prior -26.4.

  • Empire State Index: -9.2, worse than estimate.

  • Jobless Claims: 229,000, flat vs previous week.


Corporate News & Earnings:

  • Apple: Trump urged Apple not to shift production to India.

  • CoreWeave: Big Q1 revenue beat (420%) but a large loss; heavy CapEx positive for Nvidia.

  • Cisco & Walmart: Both beat revenue estimates; Walmart notes tariff-related price hikes likely soon.

  • Dick's Sporting Goods: Acquiring Foot Locker for $2.4B; Foot Locker stock up sharply.

  • Birkenstock, Dillard's, Alibaba, Deere: Mixed results; Deere cut full-year guidance despite Q2 beat.

  • Star Bulk, DLocal, NextTracker: Beats across revenue and/or earnings.

  • Boot Barn: Slight miss, but stock surging due to $200M buyback.

  • Steris: Slight EPS miss, revenue beat.

  • CrowdStrike: Downgraded by Mizuho; weak channel checks.

  • Rubrik: Dropped on valuation concerns.


Market Sentiment:

  • Slight pause in rally; mega caps (Tesla, Nvidia, Google) lifted indices.

  • Broader market (e.g., RSP equal-weight S&P 500) down.

  • Some concern as multiple stocks show pre-market weakness.

  • Market still performing well overall unless key support levels break (e.g., 21-day moving average).

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