July 18

 

Markets Overview (Pre-Market)

• NASDAQ 100 & S&P 500 Futures: Slight gains of 0.1%, continuing a recent uptrend.

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.42%.

• Gold: Up 0.6% to $3,300.64/oz.

• Crude Oil: Up 1.1% to $66.94/barrel, but still flat for the year based on USO ETF.

---

Upcoming Data

• University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (July preliminary): Expected at 61.4, up from 60.7 in June.

---

Crypto Regulation News

• Crypto Week: Congress passed the Genius and Clarity Acts for crypto regulation.

• Anti-CBDC Act: Passed to prevent a Federal Reserve–issued digital currency.

• Bills pending President Trump's signature.

---

Earnings Highlights

Netflix (NFLX)

• Stock down 2% after-hours.

• EPS beat by $0.12.

• Sales growth: 16%.

• Margins may tighten in H2.

• Raised full-year guidance: $44.8B–$45.2B.

• Strong content lineup and ad-tier subscriber growth.

Interactive Brokers (IBKR)

• 8 straight quarters of double-digit revenue & earnings growth.

• Breakout chart pattern noted.

• Chairman optimistic on crypto, prediction markets, and retail investor activity.

American Express (AXP)

• EPS: $4.08 (vs est. $3.89), up 17%.

• Revenue: $17.86B, slight beat.

• Pre-market: up ~1–2%.

3M

• EPS: $2.16 (vs est. $2.01).

• Revenue: $6.16B, beat by $50M.

• Stock up 2% pre-market.

Union Pacific (UNP)

• Exploring merger with Norfolk Southern (NSC).

• May boost Dow Jones Transport Index.

Chevron (CVX) & Hess (HES)

• CVX up 3%, HES up 7% after court win against ExxonMobil over Guyana assets.

• Boosts chances Chevron will acquire HESS.

SLB (Schlumberger)

• Revenue down 6% to $8.55B.

• EPS: $0.74, down 13% YoY.

Jul 17

 Economic Data:

• Retail Sales rose 0.6% in June, well above expectations of 0.1%, rebounding from a 0.9% decline in May. Excluding autos and gas, sales were also up 0.6%.

• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index surged to 15.9 (expected ~0), following New York Empire’s positive surprise earlier this week.

• Jobless Claims came in at 221,000 (vs. 233,000 expected), suggesting a still-strong labor market. Continuing claims remain elevated at 1.956 million.

• Housing Market Index expected at 33 (vs. 32 prior), still below neutral (50).

Earnings Highlights:

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC): EPS +61%, revenue +39%, raised Q3/full-year guidance. Capital spending outlook unchanged. Chipmakers like NVIDIA and AMD up slightly; chip equipment makers down.

• GE Aerospace: EPS beat (+24%), raised 2025 and 2028 guidance.

• United Airlines: Beat on EPS, slight revenue miss; lowered full-year forecast due to Newark disruptions.

• Alcoa: In-line EPS, slight revenue beat; impacted by Canadian aluminum tariffs.

• Uber: Investing $300M in Lucid and additional funds in Nuro (delivery robotics).

• Abbott Labs: EPS/revenue beat but issued weak guidance; stock down sharply.

• Vertiv (VRT): Buying Great Lakes (data rack maker) for $200M.

• Travelers, Marsh McLennan, U.S. Bancorp, Pepsi, Target: Mixed results, mostly positive earnings, some slight revenue misses.

• Coca-Cola: Rumors of switching to cane sugar in the U.S. sparked confusion; ADM (corn syrup supplier) down.

• Novartis: EPS beat, revenue +12%, raised core income forecast.

• Sarepta: Cutting jobs amid struggles.

• Union Pacific: Exploring possible coast-to-coast merger with CSX or Norfolk Southern.

Market Sentiment:

• Stocks showed resilience after earlier weakness this week.

• Major indexes closed strong (85–93% of daily range), suggesting upside reversal.

• Russell 2000 bounced off its 21-day moving average.

• NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed up ~0.3%.

• Market overall is still positive, holding above key moving averages, though not as extended as early July.

Upcoming:

• Earnings: Netflix (after close), American Express, 3M, SLB (tomorrow).

• Watch for continued chip and industrial trends, as well as airline and health insurer reactions.

Jul 3 2025

 General Market:

• Futures broadly positive:

• • IWM (Russell 2000) leading, up ~0.5%.

  • NASDAQ (Q’s) +0.4%, S&P 500 (SPY) +0.3%, Dow Jones +0.2%.

Economic Data:

• June Jobs Report: Better than expected.

  • Non-farm payrolls: +147K vs. +110K estimate.

  • Unemployment fell to 4.1%.

  • April & May jobs revised higher.

• Jobless claims: Fell to 233K vs. expected 240K.

• Factory Orders: Due at 10 AM ET, unlikely to be market-moving.

Treasury Yields:

• 10-Year Yield: Rose to ~4.33% after jobs report.

Commodities:

• Bitcoin: ~$109,350, slightly down.

• Oil: ~$67.25, down slightly.

• Gold: Lower, clinging to its 50-day moving average.

Key Stocks & Movers:

• Shopify (SHOP): On watch for technical breakout.

• TechnipFMC (FTI): Strong oil equipment play, consolidating near $35.

• Oracle (ORCL): Up 1.5% on $30B data center deal with OpenAI.

• Datadog (DDOG): +9%, joining the S&P 500, replacing Juniper Networks.

• Apple (AAPL): iPhone sales in China +8% on discounts/trade-in boosts.

• Tripadvisor (TRIP): +8%, activist stake from Starboard Value.

• Cadence Design (CDNS) & Synopsys (SNPS): Up on lifted chip software export restrictions.

• Kratos Defense (KTOS): +2%, post-share offering rebound, RBC upgrades target.

• Alibaba (BABA): Down ~2%, on $1.5B debt offering.

Political/Trade News:

• Trump’s tax & immigration bill advancing in the House.

• Vietnam import tariff adjusted to 20% from prior 46%