Dec 05 2025

 Markets opened slightly higher, with the S&P 500 up 0.1% after quiet pre-market action. Several companies reported strong quarterly results:

Earnings Highlights

• UiPath reported a strong October quarter:
  • Earnings up 45%
  • Revenue up 16%, the fastest growth in 7 quarters
  • Shows strong momentum in digital productivity tools.

• Rubrik surged 20% pre-market after earnings:
  • More than halved its net loss in Q3
  • Posted $0.10 adjusted EPS
  • Revenue up 48%
  • Raised full-year revenue guidance by $50M to $1.28B.

• Ulta Beauty rose 6% after hours:
  • Same-store sales up 6.3%
  • Revenue beat by $150M
  • Full-year guidance raised to $12.3B
  • Expected EPS around $25.35.
  Industry trends show strong “mastige” demand — affordable luxury for lower-income consumers.

• DocuSign fell 9%:
  • Beat EPS by 9 cents
  • Revenue came in at $818M
  • Guidance for fiscal 2026 disappointed investors.

• HPE (Hewlett Packard Enterprise) slipped toward $20:
  • EPS beat by 4 cents
  • But revenue missed due to delays in customer AI projects and supply chain issues.

Macro & Commodities

• The EU voted to ban Russian gas imports by late 2027.

• Natural gas futures have surged, breaking above $3.50 in late October and reaching $5.09, up 40% YTD.

Market Context

• Strong multi-year performance:
  • 2024: S&P 500 up 24%
  • 2025: S&P 500 up 23.3%
  • 2026 (year-to-date): on track for another double-digit gain assuming no major shocks.

Mkt update 11/20/25

 

Market & Economic Summary

Economic Data

• Fed’s view: Recent job weakness may be influenced by immigration shifts, not necessarily economic slowdown.

• Next jobs report: November report comes after the next Fed meeting.

• Rate cut odds: Increased slightly after the latest jobs data but still below 50%.

• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index:

  • Improved from -12.8 → -1.7 (estimate was 0).

  • Price pressures eased.

  • Future outlook strongest in years.

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💻 Earnings & Stocks

NVIDIA

• EPS +60%, Revenue +62% — growth accelerating.

• Strong Q4 guidance; Blackwell chip demand “off the charts.”

• Slight supply constraints remain.

• Historically pops after earnings but can fade later.

Walmart

• EPS +7%, Revenue +6%.

• 27% e-commerce growth.

• Raised full-year guidance.

• Attracting shoppers across all income levels.

Palo Alto Networks (PANW)

• EPS +19%, Revenue +16%, slight beats.

• Buying Chronosphere, moving into observability (competing more with Datadog).

• Stock moved down initially; other cyber names mixed (CrowdStrike up).

IBM & Cisco

• Partnering in quantum computing + quantum networking.

• Large players entering space dominated by smaller specialists.

Exact Sciences (EXAS)

• Being acquired by Abbott (ABT) for $105/share (~$21B).

• Stock surged on takeover rumors and again on confirmation.

Other Movers

• Construction Partners: Revenue +67% but missed EPS → stock down.

• ZIM Integrated Shipping: Big beat but revenue still down 36% YoY.

• VIPS (China e-commerce): Beat EPS, revenue +3%, but stock down pre-market.

• After-hours to watch: Ross Stores (ROST) and Intuit (INTU).

Sep 29 2025

 

 Market & Economy

• White House talks: Spending disagreements; Democrats push for ACA tax credit extension.

• Rates: 10-yr Treasury yield dips to 4.16%.

• Jobs data: Key reports due this week, culminating Friday.

• Commodities: Oil ↓ ~2% to $64.50/barrel; Gold ↑ 1% to $3,850/oz.

• Crypto: Bitcoin near $112K, rebounding 1.5%.

Global & Sector Moves

• China tech: KWEB ETF +2.5%; Futu (FUTU) holding 50-day support.

• Semis: NVIDIA (NVDA) +1%, near breakout; Lam Research (LRCX) +4% on DB upgrade.

• Energy: Vistra (VST) +2% — expanding Texas plant, quadrupling capacity.

• Biotech: GenMab (GMAB) −3% buying Marus (MRUS) for $8B (cancer drug pipeline).

Stock Highlights

• Tesla (TSLA) +1.5%, strength ahead of Q3 deliveries (due Thursday).

• Astera Labs (ALAB) +5% rebound after last week’s sharp drop.

• Electronic Arts (EA) +5% (on top of Friday’s +15%); going private in $55B buyout by PIF/Silver Lake/Affinity.

• GlobalFoundries (GFS) +5% — partnership with Corning (GLW) on silicon photonics.

• Wells Fargo (WFC) flat; MS downgrade to equal weight but PT raised to $95.

• Novo Nordisk (NVO) −3% after MS downgrade to underweight.

Sept 17 2025

 

• Indexes & Fed:

  • NASDAQ extended a six-day win streak but looks stretched near moving averages.

  • 10-year yield flat at ~4.02% ahead of today’s Fed decision (expected 25 bps cut, with markets pricing in two more cuts this year).

• Commodities:

  • Crude oil at ~$64.25 (-0.5%), XLE back above moving averages.

  • Gold at ~$3,700/oz (-0.5%), still showing strong relative strength.

• Economic Data:

  • Mortgage refinance demand spiked 60% last week as rates dropped.

  • Housing starts missed expectations.

  • Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Survey due at 10 a.m. ET.

• Stock Movers:

  • Tesla: Slight dip (-1.5%) after settling lawsuits tied to 2019 autopilot crashes.

  • Netflix: Upgraded by Loop Capital (PT raised to $1,350 from $1,150).

  • Alibaba: +2% on securing China Unicom as AI chip customer.

  • Nvidia: -1.5% after China banned major firms (Alibaba, ByteDance, etc.) from buying its tailor-made chips.

  • Baidu: Up ~7% on AI/cloud optimism and a new deal with China Merchants Group.

  • Workday (WDAY): Higher after Elliott disclosed $2B stake.

  • Lyft: +12% on robo-taxi partnership with Waymo in Nashville.

• IPOs:

  • Stubhub (STUB): Priced at $23.50/share (midpoint of range).

  • WaterBridge Infrastructure (WBI): Priced at $20/share (top of range).

👉 Overall: Market strength continues ahead of the Fed decision, with standout moves in Lyft, Baidu, Workday, and Alibaba, while Nvidia and Tesla face pressure.

Sep 11 2025

 

Market Overview

• Futures: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow up ~0.3%; Russell 2000 up 0.25–0.3%.

• Treasury Yield: 10-year at 4.02%, near a 5-month low (briefly dipped below 4%).

Economic Data

• CPI (Aug):

  • Headline: +0.4% (a bit higher than expected).

  • YoY: 2.9% (in line).

  • Core: +0.3% MoM, 3.1% YoY (steady).

  • Airfares jumped +5.9% MoM; core goods prices rising (possibly tariff impact).

• Jobless Claims: Rose to 263K (highest since Oct 2021, mostly due to Texas data anomaly). Continuing claims dipped, suggesting hiring remains healthy.

• Fed Outlook: Still strong expectation of a 25 bp cut at next meeting; slim chance of 50 bp.

• ECB: Left rates unchanged, raised 2025 Eurozone inflation forecast to 2.1%.

Earnings & Corporate News

• Kroger (KR): Beat EPS, missed revenue; same-store sales ex-fuel +3.4%. Raised guidance slightly.

• Opendoor (OPEN): New CEO (ex-Shopify exec). Founders returning to board; $40M private placement → stock surged.

• KalVista Pharma (KALV): Wider loss, revenue miss, but optimism on new drug demand; EU approval expected Oct.

• Centene (CNC): Reaffirmed EPS guidance; stock surging, echoing insurer rebound seen with UnitedHealth.

• Micron (MU): Surging on Citi upgrade; strong fiscal 2026 guidance expected.

• Apple (AAPL): Downgraded to neutral by DA Davidson; product announcements seen as underwhelming. Stock down.

• Soundhound (SOUN): Initiated at Perform by Oppenheimer.

• UPS & FedEx: BofA downgraded UPS (underperform) and FedEx (neutral) → tariff changes on small imports may hurt volume and costs. FedEx reports earnings next week.

• Adobe (ADBE): Earnings after close; under pressure amid AI competition concerns.

• Gemini IPO (GEMI): Pricing tonight; Winklevoss twins involved. Money-losing but anticipated listing.

Sept 10 2025

 

Markets:

• NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 futures up 0.5%.

• 10-year Treasury yield dipped to ~4.05–4.06%.

Economic Data (PPI):

• Monthly PPI fell 0.1% (vs. +0.3% expected).

• Year-over-year PPI up 2.6% (below 3.3% estimate).

• Core PPI up 2.8% (vs. 3.5% expected).

• Suggests cooling inflation, though intermediate demand prices rising.

Fed Policy:

• Judge blocked Trump’s attempt to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook.

• She will participate in the Sept. 17 Fed meeting.

• Markets expect a 25 bp rate cut; some traders see a chance of 50 bp.

Earnings & Company News:

• Oracle (ORCL): Stock surged 27% pre-market. Reported RPO up 359% to $455B from four large contracts. RPO expected to exceed $0.5T, surpassing GDPs of South Africa and the Philippines.

• Rubrik (RBRK): Shares down ~4% after hours. Loss shrank to –$0.03/share (vs. –$0.40 last year). Revenue up 51% to $310M.

• Advanced Energy (AEIS): Adjusted EPS up 76%; revenue grew 21%. Q3 EPS guidance $1.20–$1.70 vs. $0.98 last year.

Sept 9 2025

 

Markets: Futures mostly flat (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq); IWM slightly down. 10-year Treasury yield near 5-month lows, crude oil up after OPEC’s production move.

Economic Data: NFIB Small Business Index rose to 100.8 (above expectations). Job benchmark revisions due later; could influence Fed rate cut expectations.

Events: Apple’s product event today (iPhone 17, ultra-thin “iPhone Air”).

Big Movers:

• Nebius (NBIS): +50% premarket on $17–19B AI cloud deal with Microsoft; boosts CoreWeave (+7%).

• Tesla: New “Mega Block” energy product; China registrations up 14% WoW but still down YoY.

• Novartis: Acquiring Tremeau Bio for $1.4B.

• SalePoint: Down on weak guidance despite beating Q2.

• CGNT: Beat and guided up.

• Intel: Management reshuffle, new data center chief from Arm.

• AC’s General Stores & Mission Produce: Beat earnings, modest stock reactions.

• Talen Energy: Buyback boosted to $2B through 2028.

• Dropbox: New $1.5B buyback.

• Dell: CFO stepping down after 28 years.

• Nasdaq: Investing $50M in Gemini, exploring tokenized securities.

• UnitedHealth: Strong Medicare Advantage ratings → bonus payments; insurers expected to hike premiums sharply.

• Uber Eats: Expanding to deliver Sephora beauty products.

• Teck Resources & Anglo American: Merging as “Anglo-Tech.”

• NextTracker: Buying Origami Solar for $53M.

• Korn Ferry: Beat, stock up.

• Core & Main (CNM): Weak guidance, stock down.

• News Corp: Murdoch family succession settled, some share sales.

• Unitree Robotics: Filing $7B IPO in China, robotics focus (dog & humanoid robots).

• Boeing: Upgraded to Buy on supply chain improvements.

• Nike & Lowe’s: Added to Jefferies’ franchise picks.

• Dick’s Sporting Goods: Upgraded to Buy by Citi.

Upcoming: Oracle, Synopsys, GameStop earnings after close; PPI (Wed) and CPI (Thu) key for Fed outlook.