Jun 17 2025

 

Market & Economic Update Summary – June 17, 2025

• Market Movement:

  • After Friday’s 1.1% drop in the S&P 500, markets are rebounding.

  • Small-cap stocks are leading, up ~0.9%. Broader market up ~0.6–0.7%.

• Geopolitical Tensions:

  • Ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran.

  • Israel expanded strikes to Iranian energy infrastructure and Houthi militia leaders in Yemen.

  • Despite this, oil prices fell 2% to ~$75/barrel.

• Sectors & Stocks:

  • Energy (XLE): Up 5.6% last week, testing the 200-day moving average.

  • Gold: Slightly down, ~$3,400/oz.

  • Cisco Systems: Up 2% after an upgrade by Deutsche Bank.

  • U.S. Steel: Up 5% after Trump approved its merger with Nippon Steel.

  • Tesla: Up 2%, launching robo-taxi service in Austin June 22.

  • Celsius: Up 5%, upgraded by TD Cowen.

  • Shopify: Rebounding after legal pressure and last week’s weak performance.

  • AMD: Up 2.5% after price target raised by Piper Sandler.

  • Circle (CRCL): Stablecoin issuer’s IPO surges 10%.

• Global & Economic Data:

  • China: May retail sales rose 6.4% YoY, beating expectations.

  • Fed Meeting This Week: No rate changes expected. Market unsure whether 1–2 cuts are coming later in 2025.

  • Upcoming Data:

    • U.S. May retail sales on Tuesday

    • Jobless claims Wednesday (early due to Juneteenth holiday Thursday

• Earnings Preview:

  • Quiet week.

  • Jabil (JBL) reports Tuesday; notable in AI hardware manufacturing.

  • Darden Restaurants (Olive Garden’s parent) to report later in the week.

June 13 2025

 

Main Market News & Headlines

• Markets Dropped overnight:

  • Nasdaq QQQ futures fell as much as 2.1%, now down about 1.2%.

  • S&P 500 and Dow futures also down ~0.9–1.2%.

• Cause: A surprise Israeli attack on multiple Iranian nuclear and military sites.

  • The strike aimed to neutralize Iran's nuclear capabilities.

  • According to the Wall Street Journal, Israel has planned 14 days of ongoing operations.

Sector & Asset Impact

• Oil spiked overnight:

  • Crude oil futures hit $77.62, up 14% intraday.

  • OIH (oil services ETF) up 4%; XLE (energy ETF) up nearly 3%.

• Defense stocks like Northrop Grumman (NOC) rose ~2%.

• Airlines dropped:

  • UAL, AAL, DAL were down on flight cancellations to the Middle East.

• Bitcoin fell to ~$100,400, down 1.8%.

• Gold surged 1.8% to $3,464/oz.

• Natural gas and silver also rose slightly.

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Other Notable Business News

• Adobe earnings:

  • Beat by $0.08 per share.

  • Revenue guidance above expectations; stock down ~4–5% in premarket.

• Chime Financial (CHYM) IPO:

  • Priced at $27, peaked at $44.94 on day one—up 66%.

  • $1.8B in recent sales; profitable 2 of the last 4 quarters.

• Circle (CRCL) also recently IPO'd, still in post-IPO range.

• AMD Investor Day:

  • Announced new AI chips (MI400).

  • Confirmed collaboration with OpenAI.

Jun 11 2025

 

📊 Market Overview

• Markets are surprisingly strong after a recent reversal.

• S&P futures up 0.2%, NASDAQ/Dow up 0.3%.

• Russell 2000 (IWM) approaching key resistance.

• 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.43% from 4.47%.

🧾 Economic Data

• CPI: +0.1% MoM, +2.4% YoY — below expectations, showing tame inflation.

• Core CPI also +0.1%, holding steady at 2.8% YoY.

• PPI due Thursday, key for gauging Fed rate cut potential — market pricing in rate cuts later this year.

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🚗 Company Highlights

• Shopify (SHOP) under watch.

• Gold (GLD): Bull put spread strategy discussed.

• Oracle earnings expected after market close.

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🚘 Tesla

• Robotaxi service launch rescheduled to June 22.

• Musk: First ride from Austin factory on June 28.

• Musk also apologized for recent controversial posts.

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💼 Stock Movers

• OUST: Up on DoD approval of digital LiDAR for drones.

• Lockheed Martin: Down due to Air Force F-35 program uncertainty.

• GitLab: Beat earnings, weak guidance → stock down.

• Robinhood: Trading & crypto volume sharply higher YoY.

• Dave & Buster’s: Missed earnings, but CEO optimistic.

• Nintendo (Switch 2): 3.5M units sold in 4 days.

• GameStop: Beat EPS, missed on revenue → stock falling.

• I-R-E-N, Etsy, BTSG: Down on debt/share sale announcements.

• Chewy: Guided up but stock movement mixed.

• SailPoint: Beat earnings, guided up → stock rising

Jun 10 2025 Market Summary

 

📊 Markets Overview

• Small caps (IWM) outperforming; testing the 200-day moving average, up 0.5%

• Nasdaq-100 (QQQ): +0.2%

• S&P 500 (SPY) and Dow Jones: +0.1%

• Oil: ~$65.50/barrel

• Gold: ~$2,360/oz

• 10-year Treasury yield: ~4.45% (down 3 basis points)

🏦 Fed & Economic Outlook

• Fed meeting next week: No rate change expected

• Market expects 2 rate cuts, possibly starting in September

• NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: Better than expected at 98.8

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🔍 Stock Highlights

• Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): Under watch for potential turnaround

• Amer Sports (AS): 

• IREN +2.5%, CORZ +3%

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📈 Individual Stocks

• JP Morgan (JPM): Flat, despite a price target hike to $320 (Wells Fargo)

• Disney (DIS): Slight gain; completes Hulu purchase; price target raised to $130 (Loop Capital)

• McDonald’s (MCD): Down 1.5%; downgraded to Sell by Redburn Atlantic, PT cut to $260

• Apple (AAPL): Flat after WWDC; minor AI updates seen as underwhelming

• Tesla (TSLA): +2.5%, continuing Monday’s rebound; robo-taxi launch expected this week

• Taiwan Semi (TSMC): Strong May revenue (+39.6% YoY); Jan–May up 42.6%

• Meta (META): +1%; Zuckerberg reportedly building a team of 50 for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)

• Uber (UBER): +1%; teams up with Wavy to roll out autonomous rides in the UK

• eToro: Releases unexpected earnings; adjusted EBITDA down, but funded accounts +14%, assets +21%

• Casey’s General Stores (CASY): +10% on strong earnings & revenue beat

• Insmed (INSM): +25% on positive Phase 2B data for inhaled drug treating pulmonary arterial hypertension

• JM Smucker (SJM): -7.5% after weak guidance and revenue miss

• Rubrik (RBRK): -4% after debt offering; falls below 21-day moving average

Jun 9 2025

📈 Market Overview

• Russell 2000 (small caps) is outperforming, up 0.8%.

• Broader market is flat to slightly higher.

• 10-year Treasury yield steady at 4.51% after Friday's spike.

• Oil up 0.7%, around $65/barrel.

• Gold slightly down, just below $33.50/oz (likely an error—actual gold is near $2,300).

• Bitcoin and IBIT ETF up 3%, showing potential breakout above $60 and 10-day moving average.

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🧠 Stocks in Focus

🔼 Up in Pre-Market

• Rocket Lab (RKLB): +5%, possibly benefiting from uncertainty around SpaceX due to Trump-Musk spat.

• IBIT ETF: +3%, rallying with Bitcoin.

• Circle (CRCL): Stablecoin issuer, +17%, third strong day after IPO.

• Merck (MRK): +1%, positive Phase III trial for cholesterol drug.

• WBD (Warner Bros Discovery): +7%, plans to split into two publicly traded companies.

• Etoro (ETOR): +3%, Goldman Sachs initiates with a buy and $76 price target.

• Walmart (WMT): Edging higher, named top consumer internet pick by Mizuho (target: $115).

🔽 Down in Pre-Market

• McDonald’s (MCD): -1%, downgraded by Morgan Stanley.

• Echostar (SATS): -10%, considering Chapter 11 bankruptcy (owns Dish, Boost, Sling TV).

• Tesla (TSLA): Under pressure, down after a 15% drop last week, downgraded by Baird; concerns over robo-taxi optimism and political tensions.

• Robinhood (HOOD): -3%, fell after not being added to the S&P 500.

• Applovin (APP): -3.5%, also not added to S&P 500 as rumored.

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📆 Upcoming Events

• CPI data: Wednesday

• Wholesale prices (PPI): Thursday

• Consumer Sentiment & inflation expectations: Friday (University of Michigan)

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🧾 Key Earnings This Week

• Tuesday (pre-market): Core & Main (pipe and valve supplier)

• Wednesday (early): Chewy (CHWY) – breakout stock

• Wednesday (late): Oracle – rallying with AI stocks

• Thursday: Adobe (ADBE) – in a recent downtrend

 

Jun 05

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📈 Market Overview

• Indexes Up Modestly:

  • S&P 500 (SPY): +0.3%

  • Dow: +0.2%

  • Nasdaq (QQQ): +0.3%

  • Russell 2000 (IWM): +0.1%

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: Flat at 4.36%

• Commodities:

  • Crude oil: +1%

  • Gold: Slightly up

  • Silver: Up strongly

  • Copper: Rising, near resistance

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🧾 Economic Data

• Jobless Claims:

  • Initial: 247K (vs. 235K est.)

  • Previous: 239K
    → Continuing claims little changed

• Challenger Job Cuts:

  • Down 12% vs. April

  • Up 47% YoY

  • YTD layoffs: 284K (includes govt & contractors)

• JOLTS Preview (Friday):

  • Expected: 129K vs. April’s 177K

  • Jobless rate to remain at 4.2%

• Trade Deficit:

  • Dropped to $61.6B (vs. $118.1B est.; previous $138.3B)

  • Imports from China lowest since March 2020

• Productivity (Q1 Revised):

  • Down 1.5% (was -0.8%)

  • Unit labor costs up 6.6% (vs. 5.7% est.)

• ECB Cut Rates:

  • By 25 bps to 2.0% as expected

• Geopolitics:

  • Trump–Xi call helped boost futures (positive tone reported)

  • EU–US trade talks reportedly going well

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🏢 Corporate Highlights

• Argan (AGX):

  • EPS beat by 176%, revenue up 23% → stock surged

  • CFO stepping down for personal reasons

• Costco (COST):

  • Core comps +6%, U.S. +5.5%, e-commerce +11.6%

  • Growth slowed from April

• Descartes Systems (DSGX):

  • Missed EPS & revenue → stock plunging

• Shift4 Payments (FOUR):

  • CEO Jared Isaacman stepping down (was once Trump’s NASA pick)

  • Taylor Lauber named successor

• Robinhood (HOOD):

  • May activity:

    • Equity volume +10%

    • Options +5%

    • Crypto +30%

• TradeWeb:

  • Daily volume +33% YoY

• Foxconn:

  • May revenue +11.9% YoY

• Circle (CRCL):

  • Raised $1.1B by selling shares at $31 each

• Ciena (CIEN):

  • EPS miss, slight revenue beat → stock volatile

• Winnebago (WGO):

  • Preliminary Q3 EPS & revenue well below expectations (after strong results from RevGroup & Thor)

• Cracker Barrel (CBRL):

  • EPS beat, slight revenue miss → stock within buy zone

• MongoDB (MDB):

  • Strong beat on EPS, 22% revenue growth

  • Raised FY EPS guidance

  • Announced $800M buyback (total now $1B)

• Planet Labs (PL):

  • Breakeven, beat revenue → stock skyrocketing

• CyberArk (CYBR):

  • Plans $750M convertible debt sale

• SanDisk (via Western Digital):

  • 17M shares being sold

• Suzuki:

  • Suspends subcompact production due to China rare earth export restrictions

• Tesla (TSLA):

  • Offers $1,100 discount in China via referral program

  • More incentives amid concerns about demand and political tensions

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🧾 Analyst Actions & Earnings Tonight

• CRM (Salesforce): Downgraded to Hold (ERST)

• AVGO (Broadcom): Upgraded to Buy

  • Key earnings after close: AVGO, Rubrik (RBRK), DocuSign (DOCU), Lululemon (LULU), ServiceTitan (TTAN)

 

Jun 04

 

Top Headlines

• Wells Fargo (WFC):
  Up 2%+ after the Fed removed asset growth restrictions from 2018. Stock may gap above $76.58.

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Earnings Winners

• Guidewire (GWRE):
  Up 14% on strong earnings and accelerating revenue. Gapped above $218.33 (alternate handle entry).

• HP Enterprise (HPE):
  Up 6%, despite weak RS rating of 29. Earnings and revenue beat, guidance raised (in line).

• HealthEquity (HQY):
  Up 5% after a cup-with-handle breakout. Earnings +21%, revenue +15% YoY.

• Rev Group (REVG):
  RV maker, gapping up on earnings after pulling back to the 21-day moving average.

• Thor Industries (THO):
  Also up on earnings, but not as strong as REVG.

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Earnings Losers

• CrowdStrike (CRWD):
  Down 7.5%. Earnings beat, but growth decelerated and revenue guidance slightly below. Could retest $451 buy point.

• Asana (ASAN):
  Down 10% despite earnings/revenue beat. Mixed analyst reactions.

• Constellation Energy (CEG):
  Down 3% after Citigroup downgrade. Stock had surged Tuesday on a 20-year nuclear deal with Meta, but deal is reportedly less lucrative than prior Microsoft one.

• D-Wave Quantum (QBTS):
  Down 2.5% after $400M stock/debt offering.

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Other Movers

• Snowflake (SNOW):
  Up 2.5% after UBS and RBC upgrades, with price targets raised to $265 and $250, respectively.

• XP Inc. (XP):
  Brazil-based fintech, up 2.5% on Goldman Sachs upgrade to “Buy” with $23 target.

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Upcoming Earnings to Watch

• After close today:

  • Argan (AGX): Heavy construction leader.

  • Five Below (FIVE): Retail stock has doubled recently.

• Thursday after close:

  • Broadcom (AVGO), ServiceTitan (TTAN), Rubrik (RBRK), DocuSign (DOCU).