Aug 1 2025

 

Market Overview

• Futures down:

  • S&P 500 and Dow: -1%

  • NASDAQ 100: -1.3%

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Jobs Report (July)

• Net new jobs: 73,000 vs expected 110,000

• Downward revision (May & June): -258,000

  • May: only 19,000 jobs added

  • June: only 14,000

• Unemployment rate: 4.2% (vs 4.1% in June)

• Participation rate: 62.2% (below 62.4% estimate)

• Average hourly earnings: +0.3% monthly, +3.9% YoY (beat expectations)

• Average work week: increased to 34.3 hours

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Tariffs

• Tariffs hitting ~60 countries

  • Switzerland: 39%

  • Taiwan: 20%

  • Canada: 35%

  • Mexico: 90-day reprieve after Trump–Scheinbaum call

  • China: Deadline approaching

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ISM Manufacturing Survey (upcoming at 7 a.m. PT)

• Expected: 49.5, indicating contraction (below neutral 50)

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Earnings Highlights

• AMSC (American Semiconductor):

  • +29% yesterday, now -6% pre-market

  • Record revenue: $72.4M, EPS: $0.29

  • Strong gross margins

• ATI (Allegheny Technologies):

  • -19% for the week

  • Weak Q3 guidance despite Boeing deal

• Amazon (AMZN):

  • Initially -1%, then -7% pre-market

  • Revenue beat by $5B

  • EPS beat by $0.35

  • Missed AWS “whisper” expectations despite margin of 11.4%

  • Operating income outlook missed ($18B vs $19.5B expected)

• Apple (AAPL):

  • EPS beat by $0.14, stock +2%

  • Revenue: $94B (vs est. $89.3B)

  • iPhone sales: $44.6B (vs est. $40.1B)

• Reddit (RDDT):

  • After-hours high: $193.89 (+21%)

  • EPS: $0.45 (beat all 20 analysts)

  • Net income: $89M (vs est. $36M)

  • Strong international growth (+32% in daily users)

• KLAC:

  • EPS: $9.38 (Q3 est. $8.30)

  • -2% pre-market

• Cloudflare (NET):

  • +5% after hours

  • EPS beat by $0.03, revenue beat by $11M

• Roku:

  • -4% after hours despite $0.07 surprise profit

  • Approved $500M stock buyback

• Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR):

  • +5% after hours on strong Q2 results

• ExxonMobil (XOM):

  • +1% pre-market

  • EPS: $1.64 (adjusted $1.77 beat)

  • Revenue: $81.51B (beat by ~$1B)

  • Highest Q2 production since Exxon–Mobil merger

  • Permian Basin output: 1.6M barrels/day

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Bond Market

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.25%

  • Down 10 basis points, signaling strong demand for bonds

July 18

 

Markets Overview (Pre-Market)

• NASDAQ 100 & S&P 500 Futures: Slight gains of 0.1%, continuing a recent uptrend.

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.42%.

• Gold: Up 0.6% to $3,300.64/oz.

• Crude Oil: Up 1.1% to $66.94/barrel, but still flat for the year based on USO ETF.

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Upcoming Data

• University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (July preliminary): Expected at 61.4, up from 60.7 in June.

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Crypto Regulation News

• Crypto Week: Congress passed the Genius and Clarity Acts for crypto regulation.

• Anti-CBDC Act: Passed to prevent a Federal Reserve–issued digital currency.

• Bills pending President Trump's signature.

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Earnings Highlights

Netflix (NFLX)

• Stock down 2% after-hours.

• EPS beat by $0.12.

• Sales growth: 16%.

• Margins may tighten in H2.

• Raised full-year guidance: $44.8B–$45.2B.

• Strong content lineup and ad-tier subscriber growth.

Interactive Brokers (IBKR)

• 8 straight quarters of double-digit revenue & earnings growth.

• Breakout chart pattern noted.

• Chairman optimistic on crypto, prediction markets, and retail investor activity.

American Express (AXP)

• EPS: $4.08 (vs est. $3.89), up 17%.

• Revenue: $17.86B, slight beat.

• Pre-market: up ~1–2%.

3M

• EPS: $2.16 (vs est. $2.01).

• Revenue: $6.16B, beat by $50M.

• Stock up 2% pre-market.

Union Pacific (UNP)

• Exploring merger with Norfolk Southern (NSC).

• May boost Dow Jones Transport Index.

Chevron (CVX) & Hess (HES)

• CVX up 3%, HES up 7% after court win against ExxonMobil over Guyana assets.

• Boosts chances Chevron will acquire HESS.

SLB (Schlumberger)

• Revenue down 6% to $8.55B.

• EPS: $0.74, down 13% YoY.

Jul 17

 Economic Data:

• Retail Sales rose 0.6% in June, well above expectations of 0.1%, rebounding from a 0.9% decline in May. Excluding autos and gas, sales were also up 0.6%.

• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index surged to 15.9 (expected ~0), following New York Empire’s positive surprise earlier this week.

• Jobless Claims came in at 221,000 (vs. 233,000 expected), suggesting a still-strong labor market. Continuing claims remain elevated at 1.956 million.

• Housing Market Index expected at 33 (vs. 32 prior), still below neutral (50).

Earnings Highlights:

• Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC): EPS +61%, revenue +39%, raised Q3/full-year guidance. Capital spending outlook unchanged. Chipmakers like NVIDIA and AMD up slightly; chip equipment makers down.

• GE Aerospace: EPS beat (+24%), raised 2025 and 2028 guidance.

• United Airlines: Beat on EPS, slight revenue miss; lowered full-year forecast due to Newark disruptions.

• Alcoa: In-line EPS, slight revenue beat; impacted by Canadian aluminum tariffs.

• Uber: Investing $300M in Lucid and additional funds in Nuro (delivery robotics).

• Abbott Labs: EPS/revenue beat but issued weak guidance; stock down sharply.

• Vertiv (VRT): Buying Great Lakes (data rack maker) for $200M.

• Travelers, Marsh McLennan, U.S. Bancorp, Pepsi, Target: Mixed results, mostly positive earnings, some slight revenue misses.

• Coca-Cola: Rumors of switching to cane sugar in the U.S. sparked confusion; ADM (corn syrup supplier) down.

• Novartis: EPS beat, revenue +12%, raised core income forecast.

• Sarepta: Cutting jobs amid struggles.

• Union Pacific: Exploring possible coast-to-coast merger with CSX or Norfolk Southern.

Market Sentiment:

• Stocks showed resilience after earlier weakness this week.

• Major indexes closed strong (85–93% of daily range), suggesting upside reversal.

• Russell 2000 bounced off its 21-day moving average.

• NASDAQ and S&P 500 closed up ~0.3%.

• Market overall is still positive, holding above key moving averages, though not as extended as early July.

Upcoming:

• Earnings: Netflix (after close), American Express, 3M, SLB (tomorrow).

• Watch for continued chip and industrial trends, as well as airline and health insurer reactions.

Jul 3 2025

 General Market:

• Futures broadly positive:

• • IWM (Russell 2000) leading, up ~0.5%.

  • NASDAQ (Q’s) +0.4%, S&P 500 (SPY) +0.3%, Dow Jones +0.2%.

Economic Data:

• June Jobs Report: Better than expected.

  • Non-farm payrolls: +147K vs. +110K estimate.

  • Unemployment fell to 4.1%.

  • April & May jobs revised higher.

• Jobless claims: Fell to 233K vs. expected 240K.

• Factory Orders: Due at 10 AM ET, unlikely to be market-moving.

Treasury Yields:

• 10-Year Yield: Rose to ~4.33% after jobs report.

Commodities:

• Bitcoin: ~$109,350, slightly down.

• Oil: ~$67.25, down slightly.

• Gold: Lower, clinging to its 50-day moving average.

Key Stocks & Movers:

• Shopify (SHOP): On watch for technical breakout.

• TechnipFMC (FTI): Strong oil equipment play, consolidating near $35.

• Oracle (ORCL): Up 1.5% on $30B data center deal with OpenAI.

• Datadog (DDOG): +9%, joining the S&P 500, replacing Juniper Networks.

• Apple (AAPL): iPhone sales in China +8% on discounts/trade-in boosts.

• Tripadvisor (TRIP): +8%, activist stake from Starboard Value.

• Cadence Design (CDNS) & Synopsys (SNPS): Up on lifted chip software export restrictions.

• Kratos Defense (KTOS): +2%, post-share offering rebound, RBC upgrades target.

• Alibaba (BABA): Down ~2%, on $1.5B debt offering.

Political/Trade News:

• Trump’s tax & immigration bill advancing in the House.

• Vietnam import tariff adjusted to 20% from prior 46%

Jun 27 2025

 

🧾 Macro Data Highlights (PCE Inflation Report – May):

• Personal Income: ↓ 0.4% (vs. +0.3% expected)

• Personal Spending: ↓ 0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected)

• Headline PCE Inflation:

  • +0.1% MoM, +2.1% YoY (better than expected 2.3%) ✅

• Core PCE Inflation:

  • +0.2% MoM (vs. +0.1% expected)

  • +2.7% YoY (vs. 2.6% expected) ❗

🔎 Mixed report: Headline PCE was cooler, but core inflation came in slightly hot.

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💵 Market & Asset Reaction:

• 10-Year Treasury Yield: Holding at ~4.27% (well off recent highs of 4.6%+)

• Rate Cut Outlook: Markets still pricing two Fed rate cuts by year-end.

• Gold & Silver:

  • GLD (Gold ETF): ↓ 2.3%

  • SLV (Silver ETF): ↓ 2.3%

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📈 Company Earnings & Stock Moves

1. Nike (NKE):

   • 📈 +11% post-earnings

   • EPS: $0.14/share (down significantly)

   • Revenue: ↓ 12% (but slightly beat estimates)

   • Margins: ↓ 4.4 percentage points

   • ⚠ Facing $1B in tariff-related costs, 16% of footwear made in China

   • 💬 New CEO: “We are in a fight in every sport we’re in.”

   • ✅ Strong early sales for “Bone Marrow 18” running shoe ($100M+)

2. Apogee Enterprises (APOG):

   • Reported $0.56 EPS, $346M revenue

   • 📉 Stock weak despite earlier pre-market strength

   • Relative Strength Rating: 8 (very low)

3. Concentrix (CNXC):

   • 📉 Down ~7% after hours

   • Sales up slightly, but flat earnings

   • Weak growth outlook

4. Core Scientific (CORZ):

   • 🚀 Up sharply on acquisition rumors by CoreWeave (CRWV)

   • WSJ reports merger talks are underway

5. Pony.ai:

   • 🧠 Robo-taxi company with U.S. unit

   • Reports suggest Travis Kalanick-led group may fund acquisition of its U.S. assets

   • Uber possibly involved in funding — Uber stock ↓ 1.3%

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🔄 Market Sentiment

• NASDAQ 100 (QQQ): Heading into a 5th straight up day

• Tone: Mixed fundamentals but strong technical setup

• Analysts see strength in the index-level “cup with handle” breakout pattern, suggesting potential for continued rally despite bearish sentiment in headlines.

Jun 25 25

 📈 Morning Market Recap Summary (8:27 – 8:33 a.m.)

🪙 Commodities & ETFs

• Gold: Flat around $2,333/oz; GLD gapped down Tuesday, testing its 50-day moving average.

• IBIT (Bitcoin ETF): Up 2% pre-market after testing 50-day on Monday, following Bitcoin higher.

🏠 Economic Data

• May new home sales data due at 10 a.m. ET.

💼 Earnings Movers

• AeroVironment (AVAV): Earnings +247% YoY, revenue +40%. Despite soft full-year guidance, stock gapping up—possibly due to drone contracts (Israel, Ukraine).

• Worthington Enterprises (WOR): Up nearly 20% pre-market after earnings/revenue beat.

• Paychex (PAYX): Down ~3% after slightly missing revenue; near 200-day MA.

• FedEx (FDX): Down 5% despite EPS/revenue beat; weak guidance overshadows $4B in cost cuts.

• Rubrik (RBRK): Up 1% after announcing plans to acquire AI model deployment firm (possible $500M deal).

• Yum! Brands (YUM): Up 1.5% on JPMorgan upgrade (cites strong free cash flow).

• Coinbase (COIN): Up 5% after Bernstein raises PT from $310 → $510.

• Robinhood & Futu (HOOD, FUTU): Both trading up sharply; FUTU up 6%, possibly breaking out with no obvious news.

💻 Upcoming

• Micron (MU) reports earnings after the close. Stock and SMH (semis ETF) broke out Tuesday.

📊 Market Sentiment

• NASDAQ crosses 20,000.

• Rally leaders: Netflix, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Palantir, Spotify.

• Trader focus shifting to newer ideas like OLLI (Ollie’s), PLNT (Planet Fitness).

• Notable short: Lilly (LLY).

Jun 24 2025

🌐 Macro Headlines:

• Middle East Ceasefire: Declared by Trump (Iran–Israel); still some missile activity post-announcement.

• Market Reaction: Optimistic.

  • S&P Futures: +0.8%

  • Dow Futures: +0.8% (above 200-DMA)

  • 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4.36% (+4 bps)

  • Crude Oil: Down sharply (–8% yesterday, –5% pre-market)

  • Gold & Silver: Down 2%

  • Natural Gas: $3.61/MMBtu, –2%

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🚢 Cruise Stocks Rallying:

• Carnival (CCL): +5% pre-market (expected EPS: $0.24, up from $0.11 YoY; revs $6.21B)

• Royal Caribbean (RCL): +2%

• Norwegian (NCLH): +3%

• Viking: +1.2%
  Drop in oil = tailwind for cruise lines.

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✈️ Airlines Up:

• United (UAL): +3.6%

• American (AAL): +3%

• Alaska Air (ALK): +2%

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💡 Stock-Specific News:

• Chewy (CHWY): –1.5% on $1B share offering.

• EQT: Highlighted in Barron’s Energy Insider.

• Snowflake (SNOW): +2% after Morgan Stanley upgrade (Overweight).

• AMD: Price target raised to $175 (from $110) by Melius; MI350 chips could add $20B in GPU sales by 2028.

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📊 Technical Outlook:

• S&P 500 forming a cup-with-handle pattern.

• Watch 5367.8 as key resistance level.

• SPY: +0.7%, lower RS than QQQ.

• IWM (Russell 2000): Still lagging, but also rising.